The study underlines the importance of the economic evaluation of environmental and climate policies in the process of developing the policies themselves. This ensures that the costs of a policy are reasonable, ensuring that the public and decision makers are more likely to accept it.

The research suggests carrying out economic evaluations both before (ex ante evaluations) and after the implementation of a policy (ex post evaluations), to obtain more effective policies and interventions based on concrete data. Ex post evaluations can help improve the accuracy and reliability of ex ante evaluations, as they will be based on real-world data and experiences rather than assumptions and projections. While ex ante evaluations can inform the design and implementation of a policy and its evaluation principles, to improve its effectiveness and efficiency once implemented.

Linking the two types of assessments can be difficult due to a number of factors. One of these is for example the strong likelihood that policy making differs between the two types of evaluation, due to policy changes that occur during implementation. As a result, the two assessments may be based on different data sources and scales of analysis which are difficult to compare.

The report therefore provides a first attempt to outline multiple areas for improvement regarding the economic evaluation process, such as connecting experts and practitioners ex-ante and ex-post, promoting open access to data and improving the understanding of complex ex-ante models.

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The study provides an analysis of economic evaluation methods used in climate and biodiversity policies, aiming to extract the best practices that can be useful in the PATTERN project case studies. It consists of four sections: the first provides an overview of the main approaches related to the analysis proposed in the case studies; the second examines various applied case studies to extract common best practices; the third focuses on the proposed methods for evaluation, such as carbon handprint, Q-method, or life cycle impact assessment; the fourth illustrates the main challenges and needs identified in the analysis. Some of the identified good practices include: (i) a clear definition of the scope of the analysis; (ii) the use of appropriate discount rates; (iii) the use of reliable data and the assessment of all relevant tangible and intangible costs and benefits; (iv) sensitivity analysis to understand how key assumptions change or how variables can influence results; (v) consultation with relevant professionals to ensure that the analysis reflects their concerns and interests.

Overall, the best practice for using economic evaluation methods is to use a combination of approaches and carefully consider the context and specific objectives of the project or policy.

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Explore PATTERN’s innovative approach to policy evaluation through our latest document on the participatory crafting of Theories of Change (ToCs). This comprehensive endeavor involves stakeholders, policymakers, practitioners, and evaluators, forming a crucial bridge between ex-ante assessments and ex-post evaluations within our diverse Case Studies.

PATTERN’s strategic amalgamation of Utilization-Focused and Realist Evaluation sets the stage for a dynamic understanding of prospective and retrospective policies. Delve into the study to discover the intricate processes involved in policy development, from conceptualization and planning to intervention and retrospective evaluation.

This document not only sheds light on PATTERN’s unique methodology, but also invites you to join the ongoing conversation on rational planning, informed decision-making, and the pivotal role of evaluation in refining policies over their lifecycles. Immerse yourself in the intellectual journey of incremental circularity, where knowledge continually evolves, and evaluation becomes the compass for navigating unforeseeables in policy development.

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PATTERN’s methodological approach extracts a Theory of Change from stakeholder assumptions and introduces the Accountability Ceiling to distinguish direct policy impacts from broader influences. The framework categorizes social impacts into six domains: Capability, Community, Inclusiveness, Labor, Political Participation and Civil Rights, and Way of Life, each with dimensions assessed through specific indicators for thorough evaluation.

The document acknowledges challenges in directly attributing social impacts to policies due to the complex interplay of factors and proposes innovative approaches. The conclusions endorse this integrated, stakeholder-driven approach, urging policymakers and practitioners to adopt the framework to ensure effective and equitable climate and environmental policies.

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The PATTERN project is a collaborative effort between numerous scientific and non-scientific partners to collect and analyze data related to environmental and climate policy evaluation. With each partner collecting their data, it is essential to have a centralized repository of information that describes the structure, content, and context of the data being collected. This is where Deliverable 3.1 comes into play. By having a metadatabase, the PATTERN project will be able to (1) ensure consistency, (2) facilitate data sharing, and (3) enhance data quality by better monitoring. This metadatabase will enable partners within the PATTERN project to manage and share data in a more effective way.

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Economic assessments of environmental and climate policies are crucial for effective policy-making.
Evaluations ensure costs are reasonable in relation to benefits, increasing public and decision-maker acceptance. Ex-ante appraisals compare policy options before implementation, while ex-post evaluations provide valuable lessons learnt for future decisions. Aligning these evaluations could lead to more evidence-based and effective policy interventions. Ex-post evaluations can help to improve the accuracy and reliability of ex-ante appraisals, as they will be based on real-world data and experiences rather than assumptions and projections. On the other hand, ex-ante evaluations can inform the design and implementation of a policy, and its ex-post evaluation, to improve its effectiveness and efficiency once it has been implemented (PATTERN D1.1, 2023).
A meta-analysis of current practices indicates a very limited use of ex-ante appraisals by ex-post evaluations or vice versa. This limited application is due to multiple challenges and uncertainties
happening throughout the evaluation steps, ranging from the intervention logic to the dissemination of the evaluation findings (PATTERN D1.1, 2023). Therefore, this report provides multiple ways of bridging both types of appraisal methods covering the policy evaluation process, giving stepwise and illustrated guidance on how ex-post analysis can improve ex-ante assessments, and vice versa, while conducting the actual appraisal.
More specifically, the guidance is covering two main parts, with Part A focusing on building possible bridges per evaluation step of economic appraisal, while Part B is a guide to bridging specifically for PATTERN’s economic appraisal methods.

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This report presents the findings of Task 4.3, conducted by UNITO and the PATTERN Consortium, which focuses on enhancing the Theories of Change (ToCs) initially developed in WP2. Task 4.3 builds on the project’s interdisciplinary and participatory approach to evaluating climate and biodiversity policies, incorporating insights from WPs 3 and 4 to assess social impacts more comprehensively. The optimized and comprehensive ToCs for each case study are included in this report.
In previous work, Task 2.2 engaged practitioners and academics to derive a Theory of Change based on the assumptions and rationales of key actors (Rogers 2014; De Silva et al. 2015; Anderson 2017), while Task 2.3 examined the social dimensions of policy impacts, focusing on how these policies affect social relations and community well-being. Building on these foundations, this report emphasizes the importance of an interdisciplinary participatory approach in policy evaluation, presenting revised ToCs that incorporate insights from ex-ante and ex-post analysis detailed in D4.2 and D3.2.
As part of our participatory approach, described in D4.4, we worked closely with case study leaders and partners to evaluate the feasibility and evidence basis of the updated ToCs. Individual meetings with country leaders allowed us to assess the practical effectiveness of the revised ToCs, ensuring they reflect real-world conditions and are adaptable to each context.

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The Decision Support Toolbox has been developed by modelers within the PATTERN project to offer a clear and structured overview of the various modelling approaches used in policy appraisal. The toolbox categorizes the methods applied in the project into distinct sections, ensuring clarity in their application and purpose. The main objective of this toolbox is to assist decision-makers in selecting the most appropriate methodologies for policy appraisal and to
guide them through the evaluation process.

This toolbox builds on the ex-ante and ex-post methods outlined in Deliverables 3.2 and 4.1. It is designed to simplify the process of policy assessment by offering insights into different analytical frameworks. The methods are categorized into three sections:
– Preference and Behavioural Analysis
– Sustainability Assessments
– Economic and Environmental Impact Assessments

For each method, a diagram illustrates the modelling approach, complemented by an explanation box that summarizes the methodology in clear, non-technical language, ensuring accessibility for all evaluators. Additionally, reference is made to other deliverables and literature, offering further context and detailed insights for users who wish to explore the methods more deeply.

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This report is primarily targeting policymakers, aiming to show them the benefits of integrating ex-post and ex-ante evaluations. Specific bridging techniques are discussed, and insights into the contribution of enabling frameworks for evaluation are shared. Finally, recommendations are formulated to enhance the systematic integration of ex-post and ex-ante evaluations within EU, national, and local policymaking.

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This document provides practical guidelines for implementing a participatory approach, specifically when drafting and refining Theories of Change (ToCs), within the context of the PATTERN project. These guidelines are designed to support the evaluation and design of climate and biodiversity policies by incorporating interdisciplinary and socially responsive insights. The main objective is to provide a comprehensive framework for integrating the voices of diverse stakeholders, ranging from policymakers to local communities, ensuring that the ToCs reflect both the social and environmental dimensions of the policies under consideration. Furthermore, the insights and methodologies outlined in this deliverable will contribute to the One Stop Shop, serving as a valuable resource for policymakers and practitioners seeking to enhance participatory and evidence-based decision-making.

A participatory approach actively involves stakeholders, including policymakers, practitioners, and local communities in decision-making processes, ensuring that their knowledge, perspectives, and needs shape policy development and evaluation. Recognizing that effective policy evaluation requires a deep understanding of the real-world contexts in which these policies operate, this approach ensures that ToCs are not only scientifically rigorous but also contextually relevant and socially inclusive.
By engaging key stakeholders in the development of ToCs, this process strengthens their validity by grounding them in lived experiences, practical knowledge, and diverse perspectives. This collaborative approach ensures that assumptions underlying ToCs are tested and refined based on real-world insights, increasing their relevance and applicability to policy evaluation.

These guidelines build on insights gained from previous tasks and deliverables within the PATTERN project, such as Task 2.2, which focused on deriving ToCs based on key actors’ assumptions, and Task 2.3, which assessed the social impacts of climate and biodiversity policies. However, the primary aim here is forward-looking: to provide concrete steps for refining and implementing participatory processes that will improve policy outcomes in real-world contexts.
This document serves as a hands-on resource, offering structured methodologies for designing and facilitating participatory processes. It includes specific techniques for stakeholder engagement, practical tools for incorporating diverse inputs into ToCs, and step-by-step recommendations to ensure that policies are co-developed in an inclusive and transparent manner. Through this approach, the PATTERN project aims to ensure that climate and biodiversity policies are not only ecologically effective but also socially just, inclusive, and aligned with the lived realities of affected communities.

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This deliverable builds upon Deliverable 3.1, which introduced the first version of the metadatabase for the case studies. In this document, we provide additional details regarding the data used and the associated code. The main objective of this metadatabase is to ensure open access to project data and provide relevant information to interested users. Expanding this resource is essential, as it enhances data discoverability, usability, and transparency. Moreover, it enables other researchers to review and provide feedback on the data and models used in the PATTERN project.

We will create a repository on Zenodo, with one repository per case study. Each repository will contain three folders: one for the code, one for the data, and one for the explanation of the data.

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In the context of the most recent reform of the European Common Agricultural Policy (2023–2027), new voluntary environment-friendly measures have been introduced. These measures, termed eco-schemes, represent one-year arrangements with limited restrictions. They are, therefore, considered to be more flexible than the revised and more demanding agri-environment-climate measures (AECM). The introduction of the new eco-schemes, alongside the AECM, raises questions regarding 1) the acceptance of eco-schemes by farmers, and 2) the impact on adoption of AECM. Would farmers prefer to continue with familiar measures or opt for the new, less restrictive, and shorter eco-schemes? To address these questions, two discrete choice experiments (a stated preference method) were conducted on a sample of 360 farmers with previous AECM experience. These experiments focus exclusively on grassland-related measures, as they are available in both contract forms, eco-schemes and AECM. The results reveal a general aversion to voluntary agri-environmental measures. However, farmers are more inclined to implement the new eco-schemes rather than the more familiar AECM, especially when the compensation of the latter is conditional on the environmental results. The findings also emphasize the impact of restrictions and the flexibility of the contract on farmers’ decision-making processes, particularly when dealing with result-based AECM.

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