The project will develop an operational integrated economic appraisal approach, deliver guidelines to bridge ex-post and ex-ante analyses, build and demonstrate an effective participatory process to create 5 Theories of Change, build a European Community of Practice for climate and environmental policymaking and create a One-Stop-Shop for all policy and decision makers to access and use the project results easily.

Results obtained from in-depth ex-post and ex-ante analysis of the PATTERN’s 5 case studies will bring new evidence on the effectiveness of various types of regulatory strategies, instruments and approaches for climate and environmental policies and insights for the design and evaluation of the implementation of major European policies.


Improvement of methodologies,
practices and techniques for conducting economic appraisal of environmental policies

Assessing and improving key
environmental policies
addressing climate change and
biodiversity loss

Produce meaningful and
significant effects enhancing the
societal impact of the related
research activities


PATTERN’s main objective is to improve practitioners’ capacity for decision making on climate and environmental policies, by developing an interactive online platform for the economic appraisal of policies and measures.

Develop an operational integrated economic appraisal approach

This integrated economic appraisal approach is composed innovative models and improved methods, all integrated into a global operational approach, developed with particular attention to the measurement of social acceptance, environmental justice and fairness, climate/environmental damages and extreme events, and to the better consideration of unpriced value and high uncertainty.

First, the Aggregation Model Tool will be used for the “in-depth ex-post evaluation of actual performances of selected climate and environmental policies”. It will then allow for the REMES-EU CGE Model to recalibrate its ex-ante estimates with ex-post results, to be applied to PATTERN case studies (at national and regional scales). In parallel, a set of complementary economic appraisal methods will be improved and demonstrated, to both feed the first layer of the Aggregation Model Tool and complement the REMES-EU CGE Model.

Deliver guidelines to bridge ex-post and ex-ante analyses of climate and environmental policymaking

The five case studies’ respective policy evaluation, design and implementation frameworks will be studied. This work will support the delivery of a guidance document for concrete solutions to bridge ex-post evaluation and ex-ante assessments. These solutions will be refined with the case studies’ ex-post evaluations and ex-ante assessments. From these guidelines, Practical recommendations for the bridging of these practices will be consolidated to support practitioners in this exercise, both in methods and practices, after the project ends.

Build and demonstrate an effective participatory process to create 5 Theories of Change (ToCs)

This tailored participatory process is inspired by realistic evaluation and based on a first analysis of stakeholders. The active engagement of policymakers, evaluators and stakeholders will then allow the testing of guidelines in the case studies, leading to the co-creation of robust Theories of Change, with social sciences and technical experts. ToCs will support the identification of most suitable methods for the bridging of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations and will allow the inclusion of social indicators. A Theory of Change Wizard will be added to the PATTERN OSS. The participatory process will be based on advances in the field of Social Sciences and Humanities, with knowledge in behavioural change, social and political sciences providing the basis for the ToCs construction.

Build a European Community of Practice (CoP) for climate and environmental policymaking

To secure the uptake of all results of the PATTERN project, and to gather the different decision-makers of the case studies and beyond, a European CoP on economic appraisal of climate and environmental PAMs, and more largely on environmental and climate policy design, implementation and evaluation will be set up. A launch event will be held after the first year of the project, followed by workshops (both remote and physical). By the end of the project, policy and decision makers, evaluation experts, and stakeholders will be engaged in the CoP. A strong collaboration with existing networks such as the European Evaluation Society and EvalNet will allow for the CoP to have a great outreach and to be maintained after the lifetime of the project.

Create a One-Stop Shop

By reaching the previous objectives, the PATTERN project will provide this comprehensive operational tool for practitioners to benefit from and use the different PRs. The OSS will have 3 interactive components:

First, a decision-support tool on economic appraisal methodologies will allow evaluators to be redirected towards the best models and methods, to be used for the economic appraisal of their PAMs;

Second, a Policy Simulation System will allow policy makers to experiment different socio-economic designs, with the participation of citizens and potentially impacted stakeholders before a public policy is settled;

Third, Steps for improved economic appraisal practices will be provided. With ex-post results from PAMs, composed of market-based, innovative, and traditional measures, “new evidence on the effectiveness of various types of regulatory strategies, instruments and approaches for climate and environmental policies” will be brought. The ex-ante analyses of PAMs will also provide insights for major EU policies. From these raw data and results, Open-access data and lessons learnt will be gathered for future uptake.



WP1: Creation of the framework for the bridging of ex post and ex ante analysis

Preparatory step for the upcoming methodological improvements and aims to pave the way for the bridging of ex-post evaluation and ex-ante analysis, by working on the alignment of both types of methods and practices, thus closing the loop of climate and environmental policies evaluation.

WP2: Creation of the interdisciplinary and participatory approach

Methods and practices for an effective involvement of stakeholders in the definition of the collaborative intervention logic, and in terms of expected changes and outcomes of the evaluated policies. The robust methodology created can then be used in the case studies’ analyses and engagement structure for continuous dialogue between stakeholders to understand the social aspects of policies’ evaluation.

WP3: Ex post evaluation of past policies

Refining the tools for ex-post evaluation of the selected policies. To do so, the first part of the case studies is implemented with partners performing in-depth ex-post evaluation of the actual performance of selected climate and environmental policies at several levels

WP4: Ex ante assessment of upcoming policies

Optimising ex-ante assessments of climate and environmental policies through the ex-ante part of the selected policies’ case studies. As the end of the Work Package, all results are analysed and evaluated to provide WP5 with ptimized guidelines and tools.

WP5: One-Stop Shop development

Creation of the decision support tool of the project for enhanced economic appraisal and effective policy design. Compared to previous work packages, WP5 thus mainly aims to ensure the operationality of the proposed tools and to provide proper strategies for the exploitation and improvement of these solutions


Enhanced operational capacities of the methods of economic analysis for climate and environmental policies

Practical recommendations and conceptual guidelines

Enhanced efficiency, effectiveness and legitimacy of European regulatory and policy decisions

Improved capacity for decision making under the conditions of (extreme) uncertainty

New evidence on the effectiveness of various regulatory strategies, instruments and approaches for climate and environmental policies

Factual evidence and insights for the design and evaluation of the implementation of major European policies


Horizon Europe is the research and innovation framework programme running from 2021-2027. The European Commission has proposed to provide this new programme with an envelope of €100 billion.
Horizon Europe will incorporate research and innovation missions to increase the effectiveness of funding by pursuing clearly defined targets. 5 mission areas have been identified, each with a dedicated mission board and assembly. The board and assembly help specify, design and implement the specific missions which will launch under Horizon Europe in 2021:

  • Adaptation to climate change including societal transformation
  • Cancer
  • Climate-neutral and smart cities
  • Healthy oceans, seas, coastal and inland waters
  • Soil health and food