Pattern-Heu Forum - Recent Topics

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Current evaluation practices and related challenges of policy evaluation and bridging ex-post and ex-ante in Europe

Kelsey van Maris — Thu, 04 Jul 2024 11:32:44 +0000

In the context of economic evaluations for environment and climate policies, there is a need to understand the current practices and challenges in conducting ex-ante and ex-post policy evaluations and in bridging both. This study can allow to understand the challenges in bridging ex-post and ex-ante as only a few practices currently exist and identifying ways how bridging can be improved. This is illustrated by the Repository of current evaluation practices ex-post and ex-ante, and combining both, published in the Pattern website, where the study, which involves policymakers and policy evaluation practitioners, sheds light on current practices of linking ex-post and ex-ante assessments to create information flows in both directions. With this purpose, we developed a meta-analysis of relevant ex-ante, ex-post and combined evaluations, together with literature review. At hand it’s about sharing experiences on ex-post/ex-ante and bridging both, by giving an overview of existing practices so that policymakers and practitioners can learn from these. In addition D1.1 gives suggestions on areas for improvement, describing the meta-analysis, challenges and areas for improvement on bridging-ex-post and ex-ante and gives the results we can see in the previous document Excel already published. We have to admit that, during the work, we found a lack of practices on bridging ex-post and ex-ante. Indeed, multiple areas for improvement are identified for each economic appraisal process. These needs include having a link between ex-ante and ex-post experts and practitioners, promoting open data access, improving communication on complex ex-ante models and reducing uncertainty at data collection/monitoring stage and when selecting the evaluation approach. To this end, “guidelines on bridging” for policymakers and practitioners are being developed along the project. These guidelines will include the PATTERN cases along with an example of a comparative analysis, where ex-ante and ex-post data from the Belgian and Dutch building sector are compared to understand deviations in hindsight. In conclusion, this repository and D1.1 were the first step we made in PATTERN to start drafting guidelines for bridging ex-post and ex-ante. It would be good to initiate discussions with policymakers and stakeholders, to see what they expect from bridging, what they can learn from it, and what hampers them in applying this. Later on in the project, we can then have a follow-up discussion based on the guidelines we are further developing and a practical example on comparative analysis (applied to emissions in the built environment).

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Lorenzo Vigevano — Mon, 17 Jun 2024 09:42:11 +0000

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Implementation of climate mitigation policies in the aquaculture sector in Trøndelag (Norway)

Paolo Pisciella — Tue, 28 May 2024 18:20:29 +0000

This study focuses on balancing economic development and environmental sustainability in the context of the aquaculture industry in the Norwegian county of Trøndelag. Striking a balance between these two aspects is of essence: fish farming represents an important source of income for company owners and for the host municipalities; indeed, salmon farming constitutes an average of 60-70% of the export income of the region. However, aquaculture does not come free of risks: it poses a threat to traditional fishing communities and to tourism, as the wild fish stock, particularly wild salmon, is exposed to risks of contamination from the fish farms. To tackle these challenges, the Traffic Light policy has been instituted, a system employing color-coded zones (green, yellow, red) to regulate the industry based on environmental conditions and their impact, and prescribe specific behaviours such as the expansion, reduction, or maintenance of fish farming activities. The issue raises the interest of a number of primary stakeholders, such as local aquaculture businesses, traditional fishing communities, the tourism sector, and local governmental bodies, but a far more sizable group of secondary stakeholders is affected; as previously mentioned, salmon farming constitutes an average of 60-70% of the export income of the region, hence the multiplier effects of the sector are high. Fish farms also drive one of the largest capital accumulations in the region, and a substantial industry of suppliers (particularly in the maritime sector) relies on contracts from fish-farming companies. Balancing the scales between environmental preservation and economic prosperity requires careful consideration of potential risks. Key among these are the displacement of traditional fishing communities and the potential escalation of production costs. Moreover, the transition to greener policies requires a nuanced understanding of the social implications, potential conflicts between industry and society, and the cascading effects that might stifle growth in certain sectors. To comprehensively evaluate the economic and environmental implications of policy changes in aquaculture, quantitative modeling tools like REMES-Norway and LC-IMPACT are deployed. These models allow us to analyze diverse scenarios, considering the impacts of climate policies on various socio-economic and environmental indicators. So far, the economic analysis is still ongoing; we have managed to gather preliminary results from a pilot test in the agricultural sector first. Initial results assume varied levels of productivity restoration in the sector and, as a consequence, indicate potential economic development and job creation in several industries due to ripple effects. These begin with a decrease in production costs in the agriculture sector linked to improved productivity; as such, a general increase in demand follows, which in turn leads to an increase in the demand for capital and labor whose wage rate and required return increase, ultimately leading to higher economic growth, but with a consequent price of materials. Some sectors that are mainly linked to demand for investments, with a large share of the costs allocated in materials and with important internal spiral effects (much of the input used in the sector is produced by other firms in the same field), such as the building sector, see its demand decreasing. These production areas diminish in value, while the rest of the economy benefits from the increase in productivity of the agricultural sector. While the economic analysis is still in progress, preliminary results from a pilot test in the agricultural sector suggest promising outcomes; the restoration of productivity in agriculture has a domino effect, reducing production costs, increasing demand, and ultimately boosting the economy. However, it is important to note that the direct effects and the subsequent domino effects resulting from the application of the TLS in the aquaculture sector are anticipated to be less significant than those identified in the pilot case involving the agricultural sector, due to its smaller scale. Nevertheless, our monitoring and adaptation of policies based on evolving environmental and economic conditions will continue, and we are eager to provide updates as our study unfolds.

Two financial tools (ISDE and NHF) aimed at aiding home owners in the process of making their homes more sustainable in the Netherlands

Lucia Zwart — Tue, 28 May 2024 13:54:19 +0000

This case study targets the issue of fossil energy use and associated CO2 emission from residential buildings and the need to save energy in order to lower energy bills, reduce import dependency and to meet (European) climate and energy targets. The social, economic and political context of the policy measures is as follows: • 7% of home owners in the Netherlands has difficulty to pay the energy bill and does not have the means to take the necessary, expensive sustainability measures. • With the war between Russia and Ukraine, the fossil energy prices have risen. • The Dutch government needs to meet the sustainability goals agreed upon in the EU and national climate targets as defined in the national Climate act, which has been translated into sectoral targets including the build environment. The two policy measures examined in the study aim to reduce fossil energy use in residential buildings by raising the number of renovations (insulation and installation) carried out by home owners. The first policy measure, Investment Subsidy Sustainable Energy (ISDE), is an investment subsidy by which home owners can get a return of approximately 30% on their made investment for sustainable heating systems or insulation materials. The second policy measure, the National Heat Fund (NHF), is a loan at low interest rate focused on similar sustainable measures. Without these policy interventions, the Netherlands will not meet their CO2 targets. The baseline is that residential buildings in the Netherlands used 293 petajoules of natural gas in 2021 (temperature corrected) and this needs to be zero by 2050. Both policy measures are being implemented. All home owners can apply for the ISDE through the governmental website and for the NHF there is a specific website. However, the granting process of both the subsidy and the loan are subjected to conditions. In all cases an offer from the installer or (sub)contractor for the renovation measure(s) is necessary, the measure or used heating technology needs to be pre-approved (based on an existing list), and, specifically for the NHF, the home owner needs to be in a “healthy” financial situation. The home owners need to be aware of the existence of the PAMs themselves, they are not actively approached by the government. However, in most cases the installer/contractor or mortgage advisor will inform the home owner. Up until summer of 2023, over 140.000 heat pumps in residential buildings have been subsidized through the ISDE subsidy since 2016 and more than 16 million square meters of insulation material in residential buildings have been subsidized through the ISDE since 2021. According to the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research, or TNO), this has resulted in an approximate energy saving of 760 terajoule per year as a result of the measures taken in 2021 and almost 2.300 terajoule for those taken in 2022 (see figure). Incidentally, we have to specify that for both the ISDE and the NHF the number of applied applications and granted amount decreased significantly in 2021 and then increased to numbers higher than those in 2020 for the year 2022. The drop in applications is most likely due to the peak of the corona-pandemic. The subsequent peak is most likely the result of sparking energy prices due to the war between Russia and Ukraine and the bann on Russian gas. In addition, it might be related to people spending more time at home, working from home, and therefore wanting to increase their living comfort and lower their energy use. These reasons are hypothetical and have not been verified for the ISDE and NHF specifically. That said, it is unclear what percentage of these taken measures were a direct result of the subsidy. An ex-post evaluation of the ISDE subsidy (SEO, 2019) concludes that the additionality of the policy measure is most probably limited and that many of the home owners would have made the investment without the subsidy. On average, the number of home-owners that applied for an ISDE subsidy after having bought a heat pump is 23% over the last 7 years. For the National Heat fund (NHF), the number of applications from 2014 to 2019 is over 39.000. The corresponding energy savings have not been estimated in this study. The resulting energy savings would also (partially) overlap with the energy savings estimated for the ISDE. However, the number of applications and granted amount in loans has steadily increased since the start of the state funded loan. Through the last years, changes have been made to improve both policy measures in order to increase the number of applications. Examples are: simplifying the application process, using easier-to-meet criteria in application, increasing the percentage of the investment covered, altering the type of measures that are covered by the subsidy, raising familiarity with the policy measure through marketing campaigns, and lowering the interest rate of the loan. However, to what extent these changes have been attributed to the increase in number of applications is difficult to assess due to a changing context. It seems that the influence of the specific configuration of a policy measure on its effectiveness is limited in comparison to the influence of external variables such as energy prices, technological developments and familiarity with the subject due to attention in the media. Furthermore, interactions between different policy measures make it difficult to monitor the effectiveness of a single policy measure. To conclude this contribution, as soon as the study moves forward, we are going to involve policy makers to divulge the details.

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Lorenzo Vigevano — Thu, 23 May 2024 09:31:47 +0000

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Could the new eco schemes replace the long-known agri-environmental measures in Flanders?

Soukaina Anougmar — Thu, 02 May 2024 13:44:43 +0000

Agricultural intensification has noticeably increased food production over time. Yet, it burdens natural resources, giving rise to environmental impacts that necessitate careful consideration. Therefore, European agricultural policies have been undergoing significant transformations to address these and other emerging challenges and promote sustainable practices. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), launched in 1962, aims to establish a European common market for agricultural products and to provide income support for farmers, amongst others, through regulation of prices and increasing agricultural productivity. The latest reform of the CAP entered into force in January 2023 and will end in 2027. The CAP's new "green architecture" includes both enhanced conditionality and places more emphasis on voluntary measures for farmers and land managers. These voluntary measures include both agri-environment-climate measures (AECMs, which already existed in previous CAP versions) and newly introduced Eco-schemes. The well-known AECMs are multi-annual (most often 5-year) contracts between farmers (or land managers) and the government. Eco-schemes are instruments in the form of 1-year ecological engagements between farmers and the government. Because of the voluntary nature of both AECMs and Eco-schemes, farmers' adoption of these measures plays a crucial role in advancing sustainable agricultural practices and addressing environmental challenges. Identifying farmers' viewpoints and preferences regarding voluntary schemes is paramount to informing local policymaking and designing more effective interventions. Therefore, within the agricultural case study of PATTERN, we aim to generate insights into the diversity of perspectives and preferences among farmers concerning the AECMs and Eco-schemes. Two different scientific methodologies are applied in the PATTERN project on the Flemish agricultural case study by the University of Antwerp in collaboration with the Flemish Land Agency (VLM): the Q methodology and Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). The Q methodology is applied to analyze perceptions regarding the voluntary measures designed for farmers and land managers in Flanders in the previous CAP. By employing the Q methodology, diverse viewpoints of farmers on the AECMs can be captured and explored. This sheds light on the barriers and motivators for adopting voluntary agri-environmental measures in the future. The unique contribution of the case study lies in its dedicated exploration of the ex-post dimension within the context of AECMs. By concentrating on farmers who have previously engaged with AECMs, the analysis sheds light on how these experiences shape attitudes toward the measures over time. Practically, the Q methodology performs an analysis of sorted 'statements'. These statements should reflect diverse opinions on multiple aspects of a specific topic. After selecting statements, they are sorted by the target group (i.e., farmers in this case) on a grid. The sorting grid is a table with a quasi-normal distribution in which participants rank the statements. More detailed information on the Q Methodology can be found in D1.2 of the PATTERN project; check the Library to download and read the full document. In the Flemish agricultural case study, we also employ Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) to explore the preferences and choices of Flemish farmers regarding the newly introduced Eco-schemes and revised Agri-environment-climate measures (AECM) in the context of the recent reform of the CAP. The findings shed light on the potential impact of these policy changes and provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance sustainability and address environmental challenges in agriculture. The Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) is a survey-based methodology designed to assess people's preferences and the trade-offs they are willing to make when faced with (hypothetical) choice situations. We conducted a two-staged DCE, a stated preferences method, on a sample of 390 farmers in Flanders. A labeled DCE design was used, giving farmers the option of choosing between three labeled options: an “AECM contract,” an “Eco-scheme contract,” and a “no contract” option. A set of attributes and levels were selected, which correspond to the different elements of these contracts. After data collection via a survey, choice data is analyzed using choice models. More detailed information about the DCE methodology can be found in D1.2, available for download in the Library. The Q methodology resulted in the identification of four distinct types of farmers based on their attitudes and perceptions toward agri-environment-climate measures (AECMs): the ecological optimists, the government-aligned supporters, the erosion control beneficiaries, and the hesitant implementers. In summary, there was unanimous agreement among all types regarding the negative impact of AECMs on land value and farm production. At the same time, a collective consensus emerged regarding the measures’ positive influence on biodiversity, the measures being more attractive for farmers with a proactive stance towards environmental objectives, and the provision of and need for sufficient compensation. The ecological optimists (Factor 1) believe in the positive environmental impact but harbor pragmatic reservations. The government-aligned supporters (Factor 2) value government support and professional guidance. The erosion control beneficiaries (Factor 3) prioritize AECMs for soil erosion prevention, influenced by their regional context. The hesitant implementers (Factor 4) acknowledge practical benefits but have reservations about sanction risks and government involvement. Results of the DCE suggest that, overall, farmers are reluctant to take up voluntary measures. However, they are more likely to choose Eco-schemes over AECMs, especially when result-based. Farmers exhibit a strong negative preference towards restrictions for both fertilizers and herbicides. Flexibility attributes related to contract termination and control do not exert a significant influence for action-based contracts. Yet, for result-based AECMs, farmers show a strong preference for flexibility in control. In conclusion, the identified factors in the Q study offer valuable insights into the diversity among farmers and can be harnessed in several ways to inform policy, interventions, and research. As AECMs are voluntary measures, understanding farmers' perceptions by applying ex-post policy evaluation is vital to improving the measures' design and implementation to increase policy adoption. Overall, the DCE results contribute to the ongoing discourse on agricultural policy reforms, offering empirical insights into farmers' decision-making and preferences. The identified patterns and factors influencing the adoption of voluntary measures can inform future policy adjustments, ensuring the effectiveness and acceptance of sustainable agricultural practices in Flanders.

Agri-environment-climate measures (AECM) and eco-schemes within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in the Flanders region

Lysander Fockaert — Mon, 22 Apr 2024 13:28:35 +0000

The agricultural sector is a major player in environment- and climate-related issues, due to its substantial dependency on land and natural resources. There are many externalities from food production, such as greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, drift of nutrients, pollutants and harmful substances to surrounding ecosystems, and the altering of habitats and dispersal routes of species. All of these problems are interconnected and should be dealt with systematically. According to the European Commission, “agri-environment measures are a key element for the integration of environmental concerns into the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). They are designed to encourage farmers to protect and enhance the environment on their farmland by paying them for the provision of environmental services”.
(https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/envir/measures_en).

Agri-environment-climate measures (AECMs) and eco-schemes are voluntary measures for farmers, funded by the CAP. AECMs cover long-term environmental commitments related to the preservation of the rural environment and biodiversity and maintaining the countryside. In the most recent CAP reform, the AECMs have been updated and complementary eco-schemes (one year contracts) have been added to the policy. Eco-schemes are new instruments that preserve a substantial part of the CAP’s direct income support budget for farmers who implement environmentally beneficial practices. Whereas the AECMs are long-term contracts (mostly five years), the eco-schemes are commitments for one year.

The social impact of these measures has been analysed in the Assessment of Social Impact: “farmers can voluntarily implement these measures to enhance the environmental quality of the rural landscape or to reduce the negative impact of food production on the natural ecosystem. Examples are sowing and maintaining flower strips or planting and maintenance of hedgerows. Farmers who implement such measures can sign in to an agreement with the government. These contracts specify the conditions for the implementation and the subsidies that the participating farmer can receive in compensation for their efforts and income foregone. VLM is also responsible for contracting, advising and monitoring farmers who implement the agri-environmental measures”.

The purpose of the case study is to assess farmers' evaluations of the AECMs in the past and to determine farmers' willingness to continue or adopt new AECMs and eco-schemes, using a survey on following questions:

What are farmers’ preferences for the different components of AECMs/eco-schemes?
Are farmers likely to depart from AECMs towards eco-schemes?
What are the barriers that farmers face in the implementation (of AECMs and the transition to) eco-schemes?

In the analysis, we had to take into account the detailedness and limited generalizability of AECMs. The project applies methodologies that consider policies as general and homogeneous, whereas the AECMs cover a range of very distinct practices. Implementation of these individual practices ultimately depends on the local conditions and ecological goals of a region and the eligibility of the interested farmers for specific measures. The farmer community to which these measures are targeted is also relatively large and diverse in terms of motivations, capital and personal characteristics. The impact of AECMs (both in terms of environmental impact and socio-economic impact) thus depends severely on the specific AECMs that are applied and on the local situation in which they are implemented. AECMs can be measures that are applied on extensive margins, as linear and vertically ascending woody elements, or on entire fields, and can be aimed at buffering or connecting vulnerable natural ecosystems or the protection of specific umbrella species (species whose conservation grants protection to other species in the same habitat).

Lowering emissions from transportation in the city of Lappeenranta (Finland)

Laura Lakanen — Mon, 22 Apr 2024 11:13:04 +0000

One of our main goals to face the climate change and to preserve the environment is lowering emissions from transportation. In this study about the city of Lappeenranta, we analyse the climate policies related to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector, with the purpose to gain better air quality (less PM and NOx emissions), and to increase well-being of city residents. According to the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, the emissions are divided into Scopes 1, 2 and 3. Scope 1 emissions are direct greenhouse (GHG) emissions, that occur from sources, which are controlled or owned by an organization (e.g., emissions associated with fuel combustion in boilers, furnaces, vehicles). Scope 2 emissions are indirect GHG emissions associated with the purchase of electricity, steam, heat, or cooling. As other European cities following the EU regulations, Lappeenranta has committed to becoming carbon neutral and reducing CO2-emissions by 80% by the year 2030. The transportation sector’s share of the Scope 2 emissions is now almost 50% of the city’s total emissions. In the transportation sector there have been only modest reductions in CO2-emissions and the current national and EU policies are not effective enough to achieve local CO2 reduction targets. Besides, current policies do not necessarily treat citizens equally and do not reach the well-being objectives of the city. The shortcomings of the current national policies are supposed to be address by proposed local PAMs. In this sense, a key role is played by the municipality (public transportation services, transportation/logistics service companies) and the local waste management company (EKJH Oy), involving important subjects as logistic and transportation service companies, private car owners, university and companies offering products/services related to charging infrastructure. But also housing associations, government agencies and municipality (procurement services, city planning), estate managers, media and green reality community. In this context, the foremost objective of the case study was to assess two national policies - distribution mandate and financial support for installing charging points - and to suggest local policies and measures (PAMs) that could facilitate the transition towards zero-carbon transportation. At the same time, together with a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, our focus was also to reach socio-economic equity, whose evaluation has conducted in a subsequent phase. To realize our goals, we used Carbon handprint and Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) as methods. Carbon Handprint is used to assess potential beneficial climate impacts of the PAMs and SLCA is proposed for assessing the social impacts of the implemented policies. Both methods are originally developed for assessing impacts of the products and services. Carbon handprint allows comparison of different offerings from the climate perspective, and it also enables assessment of positive climate impacts of projects and regions. Thus, it has several purposes for use. The approach can be used widely to compare different options from a climate perspective and to identify improvement potential and development needs of products and services from a climate point of view. In addition, it is a useful tool in supporting decision-making both in political and customer contexts. It may also help to plan climate beneficial projects and climate actions, for example, when implemented by cities. SLCA is effective if used for assessing potential and actual social and socio-economic impacts in decision-making, to improve the social performance and the well-being of stakeholders. Given these premises, SLCA can be utilized to examine various social indicators. In this study, it was applied to assess the social impacts of policy measures by testing a reference scale method for the policy context. The study included a news review and data for two selected indicators were acquired from databases. For eight other social indicators, data were collected via a survey for which 498 replies were received. Anyway, we have to say that we found challenging to adapt the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) guideline to the case study. Our concerned indicators are not common in already existing literature, neither in Impact pathway or Reference scale methods. Therefore, we needed to develop some of the indicators and also appropriate reference scales for them. As already mentioned, according to the study findings, existing policy measures do not treat citizens equally, but rather show disparities among different income groups and residential areas. The study also indicates that PHEV (e.g. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) owners are more satisfied with their mobility costs, and they feel they are treated fairly enough by the government. Based on the study results, three specific local policy recommendations were formulated to address the identified deficiencies in current policies. These local policy measures are to be evaluated in the ex-ante phase of the study: 1 - The installation of charging infrastructures in municipal properties; 2 - Public charging stations aimed at leveling disparities in regional and socio-economic structures; 3 - The mandate of the city of Lappeenranta to use electric or biogas-powered vehicles (buses, school shuttles) in procurement processes. Having achieved these results, while waiting for further phases of our study, we believe necessary to understand how the shortcomings of the current policies can be addressed in local future PAMs as effectively as possible, both in Lappeenranta and in other areas.

Renovation and improvement of Local Public Transport (LPT) fleet in the Piedmont Region (North-Western Italy)

gpomatto — Thu, 18 Apr 2024 10:29:28 +0000

As it is widely known, one of the main problems related to polluting emissions is the transport. The enormous growth of urban and extra-urban private transport has been countered in part, over the years, with the attempt to implement the Local Public Transport (LPT), which however remains responsible for a high percentage of greenhouse gases in Europe, especially due to the obsolescence of the fleet. For this reason, we consider necessary a proper renovation and improvement of the LPT fleet. Specifically, we analyzed the public transport in the Piedmont Region, in North-Western Italy, where we have seen that the obsolescence of public vehicles is higher than the European average. This undoubtedly causes side effects, such as, on a wide range, both techno-economic and cultural issues. In addition to the still significant emissions from the LPT, maintenance costs remain high. The high average of fleet also has negative effects on quality of service. All those issues, together with a cultural problem, contribute to a negative perception of the public transport and a resistance by the citizens in adopting it as their main means of transport. The policy design and implementation is framed within the specific geographical and institutional context we are studying. Located in one of the most polluted areas in Europe (the Po Valley), the Piedmont Region is characterized by a medium-high intensity of commuting, as thousands of people reach daily their workplace by moving from one town to another or from peripheral areas to central ones. In 2019 the commuters moving by train were around 820.000 and today, after the Covid pandemic, the transport agencies are still waiting for the around 150.000 fewer people still missing the public fleet, confirming the resistance of people to consider it reliable. For years, the local administrations promoted series of interventions to address the problem of renovating the LPT fleet, relying on different funding channels. The general goal was to make it more sustainable and to increase the overall quality of the service. More recently, from 2017, the policy process has been fostered by the wider EU framework, which is clearly supporting sustainable mobility policies and the LPT improvement. In this context, the National Government remains the main promoter and funder in the LPT fleet implementation, with the local administrations, regional and municipal, playing a relevant role as first implementers, receiving the resources directly from the Government itself. Key actors in these circumstances are also the private providers of vehicles and energy (i.e., manufacture and energy companies) and the final implementers, the public transport agencies in the regional area. These agencies are private actors, which stipulated contracts with the regional administration to manage the whole LPT. This includes the purchase and maintenance of the fleet, which make them the direct implementers of the renovation policy. A difficulty encountered by the latter is that aforementioned operators claim not to have resources and seem not to bear a strong interest in intervening financially. The high ensuing lack of private investments and the fragmentation of funding channels require the fleet renovation to be incentivized and accelerated by a public intervention, although one obstacle in achieving this is the complexity of the local bureaucracy. Despite the difficulties we just exposed, the decarbonization remains a necessary target. It needs to be pursued through intertwined policy interventions, not only for promoting a shift in mobility demand and practices from the private cars to LPT, but also with the manifold objective of improving the energy efficiency and increasing the share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the LPT energy mix. More in details, in the short term we expect to get an increase in the share of low emission vehicles and in the quality of services and a decrease in maintenance costs and in the whole LPT emission rate. In the medium-long term we expect to get innovations in vehicles manufacture, towards more sustainable technologies and an improvement in air quality in the areas interested by the policy; at the same time, an increase of public transport reputation and its adoption by most users, consequently with the shift towards the approach of Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Following these purposes, to achieve our policy we adopted the PATTERN methodology provided by UNITO. Therefore, as for the other case studies, in order to investigate the challenges, processes and expected results of the policy, we adopted a mixed methodology merging Stakeholder Analysis and Theory of change. It made possible to consider and to grasp the views and perspectives of the different actors involved. From the Stakeholder Analysis together with the Theory of change, we were able to define the mechanisms that might/should trigger the expected goals and produce the desired results. First, we determined financial mechanisms, such as incentives and subsidies, supporting additional investments from the private sector. Then infrastructural mechanisms, promoting accelerations in the development of the recharging network. We also defined behavioral and reputational mechanisms increasing the public transport adoption. In closing, self-reinforcing circles consisting in circular dynamics, where the increase in quality and sustainability may trigger an improvement of the public perception, with a parallel rise in public transport users. As for any insight based on evidence, aimed at feeding the policy process, the perennial issue is about how to transfer the results of the analysis to the decision makers, and how to seed the policy design and implementation process. In order to increase policy effectiveness, an open issue to be addressed in the medium-long run refers to the extent to which the LPT decarbonization policy needs to rely on a series of interconnected interventions, mixing the mere substitution of vehicles with a whole reorganization/redesign of the service, that is far beyond the scope of the policy at stake.